【Daily Finance Brief】2026-11-04 08:30 (Beijing Time)

📊 Foreign Exchange

Pair	Latest	Daily Change
EUR/USD	1.1221	+0.26%
USD/JPY	158.36	+0.27%
USD/CNH (offshore yuan)	6.6654	-0.07%

The euro edged up above 1.1220, and USD/JPY pushed to 158.36 with the yen staying weak. The offshore yuan at 6.6654 actually strengthened slightly, but the number is a little subtle: the PBoC raised the FX reserve requirement ratio this week, the yuan logged its biggest one-day drop in six months yesterday, and this morning's stability looks more like digesting the policy signal.

What is genuinely interesting is the dollar's direction. Of the three major central banks, the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ have all stood pat on hawkish positioning, while Australia hiked to an 18-year high, so the backdrop of tightening global liquidity has not changed. Dollar index flat, yuan holding key levels, gold and crude moving in opposite directions, this is a classic waiting day: the market is waiting for this week's US payrolls and midterm election results rather than trading any specific event.

📈 US Equities Focus

🍎 Apple (AAPL): $331.90 (-1.90%)

• Market Cap: $4.84T | P/E (TTM): 36.96x | Forward PE: 31.07
• Analyst Target: $333.44 (+0.46% vs current), Consensus: Buy (38 analysts)
• RSI(14): 41.7 | 52-Week Range: $243.42 - $351.73 | Beta: 1.09
• Commentary: Two straight days of losses, with the price now below both the 20-day moving average at $342.27 and the 50-day at $334.05. The global memory chip price surge is eating into its margins, and the company's own annual filing warns that AI agents could act "in unintended or unpredictable ways." Under that double squeeze, the stock has little reason to rally. A 36.96x TTM multiple paired with a target price essentially equal to the current price tells you the sell side is in no hurry to be bullish. RSI at 41.7 is weak but not yet oversold; watch $325 for support.

🚗 Tesla (TSLA): $398.50 (-1.32%)

• Market Cap: $1.58T | P/E (TTM): 437.91x | Forward PE: 184.56
• Analyst Target: $413.10 (+3.68% vs current), Consensus: Buy (40 analysts)
• RSI(14): 59.0 | 52-Week Range: $297.38 - $498.83 | Beta: 1.74
• Commentary: A 437.91x TTM P/E is a number that stops you every time you look at it, held up entirely by the autonomous driving and Robotaxi story. Price sits above the 50-day moving average at $371.41, and RSI at 59.0 is neutral-to-strong, structurally the healthiest of the three. But the $413.10 target is only 3.68% above the current price, meaning consensus has already eaten nearly all the upside, while a Beta of 1.74 means it falls as fast as it climbs.

🔥 NVIDIA (NVDA): $206.69 (+2.29%)

• Market Cap: $4.99T | P/E (TTM): 26.13x | Forward PE: 12.99
• Analyst Target: $327.14 (+58.28% vs current), Consensus: Strong Buy (58 analysts)
• RSI(14): 39.2 | 52-Week Range: $164.27 - $243.37 | Beta: 2.25
• Commentary: The only gainer of the three. At 26.13x TTM and 12.99x Forward PE, it remains the cheapest of the AI compute leaders. Fifty-eight analysts put the consensus target at $327.14, implying 58% upside, with a Strong Buy rating on top. AMD's data center revenue nearly doubled last night and the stock jumped 8%, igniting sentiment across the AI hardware sector. RSI at 39.2 is still weak and price is below the 50-day moving average at $221.46, but two straight sessions bouncing off the $202 low says someone is buying the dip. The November 17 earnings report is the nearest catalyst.

🥇 🥈 Commodities

Gold: $3,933.90/oz (-0.36%)

• Intraday high $3,940.46, low $3,929.09, essentially a narrow range. With US-Iran tensions escalating and the Strait of Hormuz hit, gold barely budged, and that divergence is worth pondering: either the market sees the military action as limited, or dollar and rate pressure is overwhelming safe-haven demand. $3,900 is the psychological line.

Silver: $49.70/oz (-1.85%)

• The laggard among precious metals, sliding from $49.94 to $49.55 intraday. Its industrial character means it always takes the first hit when risk appetite returns; gold held flat while silver fell first, showing money rotating into the more defensive metal. $49 is not a pretty-looking level.

Crude: WTI $96.55 | Brent $104.57 (second straight day lower)

• Oil fell even after US strikes on Strait of Hormuz targets, and that reaction is itself the strongest signal: the market is pricing a negotiated settlement rather than escalation. Vance has publicly called for talks, and Iran has signaled willingness to reopen the strait. But with Brent above $104, any miscalculation collapses the balance instantly. Oil right now is a real-time thermometer for headlines.

🏛 Central Banks and Policy

🦅 Federal Reserve: The October 28 FOMC statement kept the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00%, a consecutive hold following September's hike. New chair Kevin Warsh made clear at the press conference that he leans toward higher rates while deliberately preserving every option, treating uncertainty as his most effective tool. The data is not helping either: September CPI ran 3.7% year-on-year, PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year for the biggest gain since 2022, and September job openings hit 7.52 million, well above expectations. Friday's payrolls report is the biggest test of hike expectations. On the fiscal side, the 2026 deficit has swelled to nearly $2 trillion, up 12% in a single year. Commentary: this Fed has no rate cut option left. The Powell era is over, and the Warsh era communicates in a style that looks like using uncertainty to suppress market sentiment, but with inflation data like this, hawkish is the only safe card.

🏰 European Central Bank: The ECB kept its key rate at 2.5% on October 29, a move markets read as a hawkish pause, at one point pricing a 67% chance of a December hike. Lagarde also announced she will step down early on February 7 next year, making her successor a new political variable. Eurozone Q3 GDP growth slowed to 0.4% with France contracting, while an Italian report showed the eurozone economy displaying surprising resilience, even as productivity, industrial competitiveness and demographic pressures remain structural. Commentary: the ECB has fully turned from the easing cycle, but the economic fundamentals cannot support consecutive hikes. A hawkish pause is, in essence, "we have not yet found the right moment to tighten further."

🇨🇳 PBoC: The central bank announced an increase in the FX deposit reserve requirement this week, signaling more foreign currency funds flowing into the domestic market. The yuan promptly logged its biggest one-day drop in six months, after which the PBoC stressed that it will continue to maintain a prudent and accommodative monetary policy stance with counter-cyclical adjustments intact. Reports also indicate the PBoC is studying making the overnight rate its main policy rate to further improve rate transmission. Commentary: raising the FX deposit reserve ratio is essentially loosening the leash on the yuan, letting the market clear FX pressure on its own rather than holding the line administratively. Doing it at this moment points to freeing up room for monetary policy, with growth stabilization taking on greater weight.

🌐 Diplomacy and Major Events

US-China Diplomacy: The November 3 US midterm election results are in, leaving the Republican Trump facing a tough test in both the House and the Senate, and multiple figures expect his political capital to be diminished. One analysis puts it bluntly: even a crushing midterm defeat for Trump would not bring relief to Asian trade. Another thread runs through tariff exemptions: Beijing has said rare earth supply to the EU will continue regardless of whether the US-China trade agreement expires. Meanwhile, Reuters cited a report finding that the China-US investment gap in AI is narrower than headline figures suggest. Commentary: the election result will change America's negotiating posture, but structural tensions will not disappear because of one election. The rare earth card is still firmly in hand.

China-EU Trade: Europe is caught between the "China AI shock" and its own regulatory toolkit, with EU divisions over how aggressively to deploy trade defense measures against China. Beijing has made clear that rare earth supply to Europe is unaffected by the expiry of the US trade agreement, a pointed signal to Brussels. Meanwhile, Tencent is deepening its payments partnership with Visa in China following regulatory approval, and Germany's auto sector faces fresh cuts as Schaeffler axes 3,460 jobs and eyes defense. Commentary: the China-EU contest is shifting from tariffs toward control of supply chains, and the reliability of rare earth supply is itself a bargaining chip.

Geopolitics: On November 3 US forces struck Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, described by a US official as a limited operation, with Iranian state media also confirming the strikes. At the same time Vance expressed hope for a "negotiated settlement," and Iran offered to reopen the strait. The Trump administration also moved to cancel $3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel. In another direction, Russia confirmed new Ukraine peace talks with Melania Trump preparing to host a ceasefire meeting, and China's top military leader met the Russian defense minister days after a Politburo appointment. Commentary: fighting and talking at once is a classic pre-election performance, but two straight days of falling oil tell you the market has temporarily chosen to believe the talking half. What really matters is whether Brent can hold $104, because failure there means money is pricing loss of control.

⚠️ Disclaimer

Data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

First published on WeChat official account「瑞哥观势」
Author: 瑞哥观势