【Daily Finance Brief】2026-10-28 08:30 (Beijing Time)

📊 Forex Market

Instrument	Latest Price	Daily Change
EUR/USD	1.1126	-0.43%
USD/JPY	157.86	+0.20%
USD/CNH (offshore yuan)	6.6657	-0.03%

The euro broke below 1.1130, the cleanest down candle of the current leg of euro weakness. The market has just digested the hawkish undertone of the ECB meeting minutes, which explicitly said "inflation risks are skewed to the upside," while also stressing that it "should not provide any guidance on the future path of interest rates." A stance that wants to tighten but dares not commit gave shorts exactly the ammunition they needed. The yen strengthened slightly above 158, but the move was limited, and carry trade has not loosened at all. Offshore yuan held firm around 6.66 with volatility under 0.05%, showing the central bank's intent of "keeping two-way fluctuations" has been executed very well.

📈 US Equity Focus

🍎 Apple (AAPL): $347.10 (+0.93%)

• Market Cap: $5.07 trillion | P/E (TTM): 39.8x
• Analyst Target Price: $330.02 (-4.93% vs current price)
• RSI(14): 60.2 | 52-week range: $243.42 - $351.73
• Take: The stock is pushing back toward its 52-week high of $351.73, but a 39.8x TTM P/E combined with an analyst target below the current price shows sell-side analysts see little room for further catch-up. RSI above 60 is a positive signal, yet the combination of "price at new highs while target prices stay conservative" is a classic case of expectations running ahead of fundamentals. If you want to chase, buy something cheaper.

🚗 Tesla (TSLA): $407.46 (+4.04%)

• Market Cap: $1.61 trillion | P/E (TTM): 447.8x
• Analyst Target Price: $410.68 (+0.79% vs current price)
• RSI(14): 65.9 | 52-week range: $297.38 - $498.83
• Take: The only one of the three with a single-day gain above 4%, but a 447x TTM P/E remains absurd, and RSI at 65.9 has entered the hot zone. There is still 22% of room to the 52-week high of 498.83, so selling pressure will not be light. The analyst target of $410.68 almost exactly matches the current price, meaning there is no new story to tell. This rally looks more like an oversold bounce than a trend reversal.

🔥 NVIDIA (NVDA): $217.94 (+0.90%)

• Market Cap: $5.26 trillion | P/E (TTM): 27.6x
• Analyst Target Price: $328.95 (+50.9% vs current price)
• RSI(14): 46.7 | 52-week range: $164.27 - $243.37
• Take: A 27.6x TTM P/E is still cheap for the leader of AI compute, and the sell-side target of $328.95 implies more than 50% upside, making it the best risk-reward profile of the three. But RSI at 46.7 shows it is still in the middle of its range with no clear short-term direction. With Anthropic filing IPO papers and planning to land on Wall Street next month, the AI narrative is shifting from "whether it can be done" to "whether valuations can hold," which helps capital sentiment across the sector and is also a warning sign.

🥇 🥈 Commodities

Gold: $4,062.72/oz (+1.42%)

• Up more than 1.4% in a single day, back above $4,000. The pullback after the earlier run to the $4,300 area relieved a lot of longs, and at this level the market looks more like it is rebuilding a safe-haven premium. Ahead of the Fed decision tonight, gold is the market's most honest thermometer.

Silver: $54.42/oz (+1.02%)

• Followed precious metals higher, but gained noticeably less than gold. Silver's industrial character makes it more likely to lag when risk appetite recovers, and industrial demand is still discounting it.

Brent Crude: $109.65/barrel (-0.73%)

• A small pullback at elevated levels. US Central Command reported that it has helped Gulf states export 1.5 billion barrels of crude and that more than 3,000 merchant vessels have passed safely through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply-side tightness expectations. But a price of $109 itself says the risk premium is still baked into the market.

📉 A-share Reference (October 27 close)

Index	Close	Change
Shanghai Composite	3648.30	-1.33%
Shenzhen Component	11245.73	-2.50%
ChiNext Index	2548.15	-3.41%
STAR 50	1252.28	-4.80%
CSI 300	4049.55	-1.32%

The sell-off in tech stocks was the main theme, with the STAR 50 plunging 4.80% in a single day and the ChiNext down 3.41%. The biggest decliners were Cambricon -5.68%, SMIC -2.70%, Hygon Information -5.54%, Innolight -2.94%, Naura Technology -5.51%, and Eoptolink -5.60%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 0.73% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.48%, declines smaller than in the A-share market, which shows this was a deleveraging of A-share positioning rather than a regional move. On the macro side, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 15.5% year on year in the first three quarters to RMB 6.03 trillion, only a slight slowdown from the 15.7% recorded in January-August. Fundamentals simply do not support a decline of this size.

🏛 Central Banks and Policy

🦅 Federal Reserve: The rate decision comes tonight (October 28), and the market widely expects the federal funds target range to be held unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first pause after the 25bp hike in September (the first hike since 2023), and the market already prices in another 25bp in December. September CPI rose 3.7% year on year (previous 3.4%) and PPI rose 6.3%, the fastest since December 2022, with energy prices the main driver. Chairman Kevin Warsh's language is the key thing to watch in this decision.

Take: This is a decision where "the outcome does not matter, the wording does." Holding is consensus, and what truly determines December is what Warsh says at the press conference. The market is still basking in the optimism that "the last hike has been digested," but 3.7% inflation and 6.3% PPI leave no room for any easing. Rather than waiting, position early: for rate-sensitive assets, tonight's volatility will offer a better entry point than the data itself.

🏰 European Central Bank: The first hike since the September meeting, with the deposit facility rate raised to 2.50% and the main refinancing rate at 2.65%. The meeting minutes published last Thursday showed policymakers view inflation risks as skewed to the upside, while stressing they "should not provide any guidance on the future path of interest rates and should keep all options open." The next monetary policy press conference is scheduled for October 29.

Take: The euro's weakness confirms the ECB's dilemma: it wants to hike but dares not commit, and the minutes became the best raw material for shorts. A 2.50% deposit rate is still within neutral territory, so room for further hikes exists but determination does not. For European equities and peripheral government bonds, this matters more than the euro itself.

🇨🇳 PBOC: October LPR was unchanged for the 17th consecutive month, at 3.0% for the one-year tenor and 3.5% for loans of over five years, both at historic lows. Governor Pan Gongsheng said the PBOC will advance reform of the pricing benchmark and reduce reliance on LPR as a single anchor, which the market read as a sign the main policy rate may shift to the 7-day reverse repo rate. The central bank also announced it will set up a swap facility to provide emergency liquidity support to non-bank institutions facing large redemptions. Q3 GDP grew 4.5%, above expectations.

Take: When the economic data is good enough, monetary policy has no urgency. With LPR frozen for 17 months and the marginal effect of rate tools declining, reform of the pricing benchmark is the real priority. The swap facility is interesting: it does not cut rates, but it can supply liquidity when the market gets stampeded. The PBOC is pre-positioning against possible volatility around the Fifth Plenary Session.

🌐 Diplomacy and Major Events

US-China Leaders' Diplomacy: The China-US trade truce framework is still in its continuation phase, but the focus is shifting from economics and trade toward security. The latest development is the FY2027 defense authorization bill under review in the US Senate, with proposals covering more than $1 trillion in defense spending, including multiple provisions explicitly targeting China. At the same time, US Secretary of State Rubio, defending the controversial Venezuela oil agreement, invoked China and Russia as partners, on the grounds that the deal can open oil reserve channels during a crisis. China, meanwhile, announced stronger protection of trade secrets and stricter measures against theft by foreign entities.

Take: The economic truce has not been lifted, yet the center of the contest has shifted from tariffs toward technology and security. For capital markets, this means the marginal utility of the "China-US easing" trade logic is fading, while "de-risking" is the long-term main line. China's strengthened trade-secret protection is a reciprocal response to decoupling pressure and a way to win bargaining chips for the tech industry.

China-EU Trade: The earlier quota arrangement for Chinese auto exports is still in its digestion period, and Europe is using trade defense instruments more frequently against Chinese electric vehicles and photovoltaic products, while assessing stricter trade control mechanisms. The pre-existing dispute over excess capacity between China and the EU continues to be handled within the China-EU economic and trade dialogue framework through a "consensus plus restrictions" approach.

Take: The form of China-EU friction has changed, shifting from a "full-scale tariff war" to "precise, targeted defense." This pattern is less damaging to both sides, but friction will keep seeping into more industries, and once path dependence takes hold it is very hard to reverse.

Geopolitics: The Middle East remains the biggest variable in global pricing. US Central Command reported that it has helped Gulf states export 1.5 billion barrels of crude, and more than 3,000 merchant vessels have safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz with its support, which eases supply concerns to some degree. But Brent crude is still hovering at a high $109, showing the risk premium has not disappeared. On the Russia-Ukraine front, the Kremlin downplayed an extremely rare phone call between Putin, the President of Finland, and the Prime Minister of Norway, with the two leaders using it to call for a "direct dialogue" to end the war, while Russian forces continue to strike Kyiv.

⚠️ Disclaimer

Data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

First published on the WeChat public account 「瑞哥观势」
Author: 瑞哥观势
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First published on the WeChat public account 「瑞哥观势」.