每日财经简报 | 2026-11-12
美元加息预期把 EUR/USD 压回 1.11 下方,黄金在 4000 美元上方承压,而霍尔木兹海峡连续出事成为今日最大变量。同时《华尔街日报》曝出 NVIDIA 董事会准备罢免黄仁勋,治理风险与 11 月 17 日财报同时定价。
Daily curated finance digest: Fed/ECB rate decisions, macro prices, FX and commodities.
30 briefings total
美元加息预期把 EUR/USD 压回 1.11 下方,黄金在 4000 美元上方承压,而霍尔木兹海峡连续出事成为今日最大变量。同时《华尔街日报》曝出 NVIDIA 董事会准备罢免黄仁勋,治理风险与 11 月 17 日财报同时定价。
US October CPI came in at +0.4% m/m, above expectations, and Fed Governor Waller flagged a possible 50bp hike in December, with CME pricing a 25bp December move at 95.6%. Gold slumped 2.41% to $4039/oz and silver fell 3.45%, while NVDA dropped 5.54% with RSI at just 19.3, deep in oversold territory. Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities and tanker explosions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent briefly below $90 as the market priced in de-escalation.
Brent crude plunged 6.78% in a single day after Trump said the Iran war is 'effectively over' and that he is willing to negotiate with Tehran, with security in the Strait of Hormuz expected to recover and global risk appetite warming fast; the Nikkei rose 3% back above 60,000 and the KOSPI jumped 5.1%, triggering a circuit breaker. Gold rose against the trend by 1.68% to $4123.84, while NVDA fell 4.27% but with RSI at just 27.4 in oversold territory and the Nov 17 earnings report approaching. The Fed held 3.75%-4.00% unchanged and scrapped forward guidance, while China's October PPI rose 5.7% year on year against CPI of only +0.7%, leaving the room for policy easing locked.
The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, two weeks after a 25bp hike, and Chair Warsh killed forward guidance. The ECB kept the deposit rate at 2.50% after debating a hike, while Lagarde announced her early departure. China's LPR stayed flat for a 17th straight month with Q3 GDP at 4.5%. NVDA rose 2.78% but RSI sits at just 30.76 ahead of the Nov 17 earnings, and the US-Iran conflict has entered its eighth month with Hormuz and Qeshm already hit.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote with two dissents calling for a hike, eurozone inflation hit 4.0% (a three-year high), and China's LPR stayed flat for a 12th straight month. Democrats swept the midterms, about 600,000 NVIDIA H200 chips are stuck in Hong Kong, and the S&P 500 lost a record $2.9T in one session.
Gold at $4,071 and silver at $51.98, with crude down 12% for the week: the US-Iran nuclear deal window is open but the terms of exchange have no near-term solution, and vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are running near record highs. In US equities NVDA closed at $186.64 (+2.78%, RSI 30.76), TSLA at $358.22 (+4.23%), and AAPL at $342.37 (-0.52%), now trading above the sell-side average target of $332.68. Chinese equities fell broadly on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite at 3,649.18 (-1.10%) and the ChiNext Index down 3.96%. On the policy side, the Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% though two officials voted to hike, the ECB stayed put with Lagarde possibly stepping down early, and the PBOC left the LPR unchanged for a 17th straight month while moving to re-anchor the policy rate to the 7-day reverse repo. After the Democratic blue sweep in the US midterms, the "super AI ban" now has a legislative path, and that is the real source of damage to the AI supply chain.
The Nasdaq plunged over 5.5% into correction territory and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 12%, triggering two circuit breakers in South Korea: the Democratic midterm victory combined with the proposed "super AI ban" pushed regulatory risk into AI valuations for the first time, triggering a global liquidation of the AI supply chain. NVDA fell 9.26%, TSLA 10.77% and AAPL 1.53%, while gold held above $4,100. On central banks, the Fed held rates at a 10-2 vote on Oct 28, the ECB kept its policy rate at 2.5%, and the PBoC shifted its policy rate anchor on Nov 2. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Iran submitting a nuclear deal proposal to Washington via Qatar.
The dollar softened as gold jumped 3.9% to $4,091/oz and silver rallied 5.3%, a clear risk-off signal. The Fed held rates 10-2 on Oct 28, with new chair Warsh laying the groundwork for a cut this year. Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the US midterms, slowing the pace of China-US tariff changes, while A-shares surged with the STAR 50 up nearly 10%.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, with new chair Warsh leaning hawkish and signaling hikes may come. US September PPI jumped 6.3% year-on-year, the biggest gain since 2022. EUR/USD stands at 1.1221, NVDA bucked the trend to gain 2.29% to $206.69, and the STAR 50 index in China slumped 3.81%. US forces struck Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil lower for a second straight day.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 28, the ECB paused after two hikes, and crude oil plunged 5.05% to $96.23. EUR/USD sits at 1.1195, NVDA slipped to $202.06 with RSI at just 26.9, and China's STAR 50 tumbled 4.35%. The US and China reached a $30 billion reciprocal tariff arrangement.